We weren’t just being hopeful. Last January, Natural Home predicted that smaller homes would be the trend in 2010. Our readers have always understood the inherent environmental value in keeping their houses as small as possible, and we’ve been waiting for the world to catch up. This month, the American Institute of Architects’ Home Design Trends Survey revealed that homes are, indeed, getting smaller.

With the housing market in a slump and more homeowners concerned about rising utility costs, this move toward smaller homes makes sense—but it’s not driven solely by economics. The AIA reports that homeowners are eschewing upscale amenities in favor of flexible, open and informal spaces that allow for easy movement and family living, and they’re finding those spaces in smaller houses.

A family of four (and two cats) live comfortably in this 648-square-foot home in Maine. Photo Courtesy Ben and Sarina Speed.

Aaron and Meghan Powers relax in their Japanese-inspired sunken dining table made from cherry wood taken from Aaron's grandfather's farm in Vermont. Photo By Betsy Morrison.

Denise Franklin's house, Quietude, is built of local lodgepole pine. The ventilated, insulated double metal roof reflects heat away from the house during the hot Okanagan summers. Photo By Stuart Bish.

Salvaged windows date to the 1880s. The siding is made of salvaged old-growth cypress from circa 1910. The 19th-century doors have some of their original patina. Photo Courtesy Texas Tiny Houses.

We couldn’t be more thrilled. We’ve championed small homes because less square footage means less drain on our natural resources, but also because their savvy design and building methods are truly inspirational (no matter how low you go). In the past year, we’ve featured Tiny Texas Houses’ 300-square-foot salvaged homes, a 648-square-foot Maine home shared by a family of four, and Denise Franklin’s 280-square-foot home in the Okanagan Mountains—a reader favorite.

We believe tiny houses are the next big thing (and we’re pretty good at predictions).

It’s self-serving to suggest that the topics we’ve been covering in Natural Home for a decade will emerge as important green building trends in 2010. But all the experts agree: This is the year when everyone will want a green, energy-efficient home. Insulation is sexy. President Obama said so.

Here’s the green building trends we think will happen in 2010.

Green Building Trend 1: Modular will be the new straw bale. 

The i-house includes ample natural light and outdoor living spaces. Photo Courtesy Clayton Homes.

At the turn of the century, straw bale was a popular dream-house material. (People purchased a lot of books and magazines about straw bale homes and built a decent number of straw bale homes.) Now, prefab homes are the rage—and unlike straw bale, they’re pretty easy to build. Prefab home manufacturers have popped up across the country, and they’re building affordable, stylish, environmentally friendly homes. Clayton Homes’ iHouse, backed by billionaire investor Warren Buffet, provides 723 hip-looking square feet, complete with solar panels, tankless water heaters and bamboo floors. Start dreaming.

Green Building Trend 2: Green remodeling will hang tough in a tough economy.

This year homeowners will capitalize on 2009’s buzz about energy efficiency. Green remodels will be good business in 2010 as the Obama Administration continues to promote energy efficiency and clean energy. Now, more than ever, it pays for taxpayers to improve their homes’ energy efficiency. Market research firm SBI predicts the U.S. home energy renovation market will grow about 15 percent per year until it reaches $35 billion in 2013. Energy-efficient remodeling and renovating is a bright spot in the still-struggling construction business, SBI says.

Green Building Trend 3: We’ll see a lot more “green” building products, and we’ll need to ask more questions.

NextGen Research predicts that the global market for green building materials will grow 5 percent per year until it reaches $571 billion in 2013. That growth will trigger innovations in green building technology—and some who just want to get in on the gold rush. On the upside, green products will look and perform better, and designers’ creativity won’t be limited by finite resources. But buyer beware: It pays to investigate a company’s green claims before investing. Third-party certification will also take on more importance in the coming year.

What do you think? Are we overly optimistic? Right on track? Or just predictable? Leave me a comment in the comment section.

Want to read more 2010 predictions? Check out our lifestyle predictions, interior design predictions and our energy-efficient homes predictions.

We’ve been blogging our 2010 predictions, but the following aren’t our own. They come from Rosaline Heijl, a green-focused realtor and blogger from Austin, Texas. (Reading all the predictions that experts are making for the coming year, I can’t help but smile. They’re talking about all the stuff we’ve loved at Natural Home for more than a decade.)

Here are five of Rosaline’s 2010 predictions (with a little back talk).
 
1. Americans will make their homes more energy efficient.

On average, solar water heating systems reduce water heating bills by 50 to 80 percent, according to the Department of Energy. NH Archives.

We suggest they start by conducting their own home energy audits. They may need a big-ticket item such as a reflective roof or a tankless water heater, or they may just want to take small, inexpensive steps to reduce their heating bills.

2. We’ll become more aware of the toxins in our homes.

The first step toward a toxin-free home is reading labels on cleaning and other household products. NH Archives.

We’ve preached a little in the past about  the perils of PVC and the toxic chemicals in traditional paint. All kind of scary. The good news is, cleaner indoor air can actually be a breeze. Here’s to good, clean living.

3. We’ll seek cleaner energy alternatives.

More Americans want alternative energy systems such as wind and solar for their homes. Photo Courtesy Skystream.

The Obama Administration’s promoting clean energy, and Americans seem to want it. Lucky for us, our alternative energy options are expanding. Installing a renewable energy system at home can be pricey, but tax credits offered under last year’s federal stimulus plan can help fund your investment.

4. Houses will get smaller.

This ready-made 65-square-foot home costs $37,000. Photo Courtesy The Tumbleweed Tiny House Company.

Amen, brothers and sisters. We love smaller homes. We kind of have a thing for tiny houses. And thanks to our friend and frequent contributor Sarah Susanka,  we know how to live comfortably in them.

5. We’ll rip up the carpet. 

Hard-surface floors such as cork, stone and bamboo will replace carpet. Photo Courtesy duro design.

Well, finally. For years we’ve been warning homeowners that carpet outgasses toxins, traps dirt and dust mites and pollutes indoor air. Americans are getting it. They’re buying more hard-surface floors such as bamboo, cork and stone.

When making any predictions about what 2010 holds, we just can’t discount the economy. Once again, economic uncertainty will play a role in shaping how Americans live. Here’s how this plays out in the way we’ll nest.

1. We’ll go warm.

Make sure your wood furniture comes from Forest Stewardship Council-certified sources, like this Zama dining table from Berkeley Mills. Photo Courtesy Berkeley Hills.

Seeking comfort, people will move away from dark, cold woods and stone in favor of warmer colors such as honey and caramel.

2. Textiles will be bold and bright.

Add unexpected color to throw pillows with a bold ikat print. Photo By Posh Living, LLC/Courtesy Flickr. 

Geometric prints in bold patterns—herringbone, ikats and bargello—will take the spotlight. We’ll see more of these on environmentally friendly, organic fabrics. (Maybe it’s time to reupholster using one of these hot prints.)

3. We’ll spruce up with bright, natural colors.

Bring nature indoors with a splash of bright, beautiful turquoise. Photo By coco+kelley/Courtesy Flickr.

Color authority Pantone has named turquoise its color of the year for 2010. Turquoise combines blue’s serenity with green’s invigoration, soothing us and restoring our sense of well-being. This will be the year of bright, saturated colors, such as turquoise, which spice up quiet spaces while still drawing inspiration from nature. (Make sure to use low-VOC paint if you’re splashing on new color.)

4. We’ll let more sunshine in.

Incorporating natural daylight into home design will be popular in 2010. Photo Courtesy E.J. Meade.

Designing with natural light was a strong trend in 2009 that is predicted to continue in 2010. Opening up your home to natural light will not only reduce your dependency on electricity but can also raise your spirits.

5. Rugs will go minimal.

Purchase chic rugs from socially responsible companies. Look for the Goodweave label to ensure your new rug wasn't made by children. Photo By Robin Romano/Courtesy Rugmark.

Messy, shaggy rugs that trap and hold dirt and dust mites are out. Flat, woven rugs are in. If you’re in the market, make sure yours isn’t made by a child. Choose one certified by RugMark International, a nonprofit organization that fights child labor practices. Its GoodWeave label addresses social and environmental issues as well.

A number of factors will shape our lifestyles in the next year, but none as much as the recovering economy. Americans will still look for ways to save a penny or two, and with a few years of practice under their belts they’ll get more thrifty and resourceful. We see the following trends emerging in 2010.

1. Grow your own food.

More Americans will grow their own food-producing gardens in 2010.  Photo By Downing Street/Courtesy Flickr.

Health concerns have made us more selective, but the economy has made it more difficult to afford quality food. One simple solution is to grow your own. Last year seed sales rose as more people turned to food-producing gardens, a trend we think will continue into the new year. Food-producing gardens provide healthy, organic food at a fraction of the cost and also cut back on transportation costs and the carbon footprint of traditional foods.

2. Eat local.

Last spring, Michelle Obama began campaigning for local food. As consumers look for ways to get healthy, affordable food, we predict that farmers markets and community-sponsored agricultural programs will see strong support. Buying local food benefits the planet and local economies.

3. Cook at home.

Americans will continue to cook more meals at home instead of dining out.  Photo By Erich Ferdinand/Courtesy Flickr.  

Americans are eating at home more according to a new report from market research company NPD. Although most meals made at home are cooked in the microwave, Americans are choosing to eat in rather than dine out. Cooking at home allows us more control what we eat, letting us choose fresher, organic ingredients for less than what we pay at a restaurant.

4. Downsize.

Less will be more in 2010. We’ll return to a lifestyle of simplicity (or at least head down that path) and pare down the clutter in our lives. By focusing on the basics of everyday living, we will evaluate what’s necessary in life—and what’s a luxury. Check out Gregory Paul Johnson’s story: After evaluating his lifestyle and thinking about where he wanted to be in 30 years, he moved to a 140-square-foot home.

5. Seek value.

As we downsize, we’ll buy less and put more thought into our purchases. We’ll opt for quality products that will last longer, and we’ll put more stock into repairing and maintaining our goods rather than throwing away and buying new.

6. Borrow, don’t buy.

In the continuing search to save a buck, Americans will use all their resources, including their neighbors. Instead of buying new tools, we’ll ask our neighbors if we can borrow theirs, and in the process we’ll reconnect with those around us. New online resources such as Craigslist and NeighborGoods will make it easier to find what we need.

7. Invest in energy-saving appliances.

“Energy efficiency” was a key phrase in 2009 and one that consumers will put into even greater action in 2010 by choosing energy-saving appliances for their homes. More people will purchase energy-efficient appliances as an economic stimulus plan similar to Cash for Clunkers makes it easier and more economical.

8. Save water.

Americans will become more conscious of water usage and will make an effort to save water through rainwater catchment, graywater systems, and low-flow toilets and showerheads.

9. Harness the sun. 

Residential solar power will be big in the upcoming year. With better technology and more options for obtaining solar power, more Americans will harness the sun’s power to fuel their homes’ energy needs.

10. Buy green. 

More Americans are seeing the value in nontoxic, all-natural products. Green cleaners will become even more populat in 2010. Recycled, upcycled, organic, eco-friendly and fair-trade products will all be big in 2010. A note of warning, however: As green products become more popular, so will greenwashing. The GoodGuide, a website and iPhone application, examines 75,000 products, making it easier to find products that are truly green.

Do you have any additional or different predictions for 2010? Tell me your 2010 predictions in the comments section.