Looking Ahead: The Next 10 Years of Green Building
(Page 2 of 10)
May/June 2009
By Eric Corey Freed
SERGIO PALLERONI: I think housing is going to get more regionalized. Too much of housing is driven by prototypes that are supposed to apply nationwide. Increasingly, sustainability is driving us to understand local issues and opportunities, both in how buildings perform and with changing economics. Consider regional materials. So I think we're going to get a greater diversity in housing than anything else.
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We're also going to get more influence from across borders. You're already seeing that in the way the publications are going. Housing in America has always been influenced by America itself, but you're going to see more influence from Europe and looking at what other people are doing. We’re getting more serious about looking at other examples because of a sharing of issues. We need potential models for these economics, energy and resource issues.
GIL FRIEND: Housing size will probably shrink, and housing will get more efficient. There's going to be significant growth in energy-efficient, water-efficient and resource-efficient housing –the markets are going to demand it. We're already seeing a call for zero net energy footprint homes, and even zero net water homes.
One of the really potentially interesting things happening now is a growth in thinking about how buildings are living systems. And not just as boxes plopped on the landscape, but as living systems participating in living systems. Housing not just to zero out its' impact, but see housing as regenerative element on the landscape. A net producer of value: energy, water, food and enjoying well being.
MICHELLE KAUFMANN: Over the past 15 to 20 years, so many people have been thinking about homes as quick investments, with two-year flips. People have been buying homes, doing the quick remodel (mainly with the priorities of low cost materials that will look good for open house day), and then selling them. We have almost been thinking of homes as disposable. Those days are over (and thank goodness for that!)
People are now thinking about homes as long-term dwellings. This inherently leads to more sustainable choices that are based on long-term costs versus upfront costs, choosing materials and systems that are long-lasting, timeless in beauty, and smart in design. We are going to start thinking and talking about the cost of homes in a more real way—which for most people is about their monthly bills rather than upfront sticker cost.
Because, for most people who don't pay cash upfront, it is about the monthly bills: monthly mortgage and monthly water and energy bills. Once we start thinking and talking about costs in that very real way, sustainable green homes are seen as costing less, and we start making smarter choices. I think this is really exciting.
NH: How should it change?
SERGIO PALLERONI: Housing should be focusing on local conditions and economies. Of course, there's this drag because it is hard to shift systems. Things are not moving as fast as I'd like them to, but we're beginning to see the old models change. We're beginning to realize that in some climates certain ideas don't work—and don't necessarily need to work.
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